Economist and author Kyla Scanlon discusses inflation, economic narratives, and the housing market. Episode 38
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Text and links to sources available here: https://reason.com/podcast/2024/08/29/kyla-scanlon-whats-actually-wrong-with-the-economy
How's the economy actually doing?
In 2022, economists forecasted that we'd be in a recession by now. Did it ever actually happen, though? Prices got higher, interest rates ticked up, but mass layoffs never really happened and gross domestic product growth chugged on. People mostly weathered the turbulence.
Joining us today to talk about all that and to speculate on what effects former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris' proposals might have on the economy is Kyla Scanlon. She worked as a macroeconomic analyst at Capital Group before founding Bread, a financial education company. She has built a large social media following by teaching finance and economics via YouTube, Instagram, Substack, and TikTok. She recently published her first book In This Economy: How Money and Markets Really Work.
As we came out of the pandemic, we experienced inflation beyond what most millennials have seen in their lifetimes. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to attempt to achieve a soft landing—using the power of the central bank to cool a hot economy without causing a recession. We start by asking Kyla: "We're in an election year. How do you think voters should perceive the current state of our economy?"
Sources referenced in the conversation:
Financial Times: 2022 prediction of a recession. https://www.ft.com/content/53fcbbf1-39e3-483c-a6f2-b0de432ed5a3
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1/
COVID did not rescue the Armageddonists from underperformance purgatory https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf
Just Asking Questions with Nate Silver https://youtu.be/otxRaTbs8hU?list=PLBuns9Evn1w9K02WT8x-gzSI-UdeeXFG9
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) | FRED| St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
FiveThirtyEight: Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-economic-indicators-best-predict-presidential-elections/
Kyla Scanlon: Why We Have a Housing Crisis https://kyla.substack.com/p/why-we-have-a-housing-crisis
Homeownership rates among Gen Z, Millennials, and Gen X. https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023/
Harris-Walz economic agenda press release https://mailchi.mp/press.kamalaharris.com/vice-president-harris-lays-out-agenda-to-lower-costs-for-american-families
Harris press release about her "$25k downpayment assistance" plan https://mailchi.mp/press.kamalaharris.com/vice-president-harris-lays-out-agenda-to-lower-costs-for-american-families
Kyla Scanlon: The TikTok Girl is Right: Modernity and the 9-to-5 https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-tiktok-girl-is-right-modernity