For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it?
00:00 - What’s the best way to predict elections?
00:48 - How were elections predicted in the past?
02:36 - How do modern day polls work?
04:32 - Why polls miss the mark
07:14 - How does statistical modelling work?
08:30 - Our French election model
See the data behind The Economist's French election model: https://github.com/TheEconomist/2022-france-election-model
Find out french election coverage here: https://econ.st/3D70EDW
Will Emmanuel Macron win a second term? https://econ.st/36M2DBK
“Covid, heating bills, crime—that’s what people will be voting on”—our French-election series begins. Listen here: https://econ.st/36Jzozx
How we forecast the French election: https://econ.st/356SLSq
The Economist’s election modelling should cheer Emmanuel Macron: https://econ.st/3iwgeQ7
America’s battle over election laws: https://econ.st/3JIi4JG
In France’s election young people are all over the map: https://econ.st/3IG9euy